I’m not sure how much to write about COVID here at Silver Bulletin. On the one hand, the way the topic represents the intersection of the personal and the political seems almost designed to alienate ...

Can Democrats still win the Senate if the polls overestimate them? And how ugly could the map get for Republicans if the ...

In Michigan, Jocelyn Benson is polling well ahead of Abdul El-Sayed. Do gaps like that tend to shrink on Election Day?

I don’t mean to suggest that FiveThirtyEight invented the concept of systematic polling error, but the FiveThirtyEight/Silver ...

Still Counting Episode 7 is ready. This episode is a little bit on the longer side. The original plan was to tell the story of the 2026 campaign through the ubiquitous ads that you’re undoubtedly ...

Mr. Irrelevant” has the NFL’s highest QBERT rating so far this season. It’s time to stop holding his draft position against ...

Republicans might hold on to one or two of the toss-up Senate races, but the tide will be too strong to resist elsewhere. At ...

It’s not unreasonable to approach election polls from a position of mild — maybe even more-than-mild — skepticism. In some cases this year, they’re projecting remarkable things, like Democrats having ...