In Michigan, Jocelyn Benson is polling well ahead of Abdul El-Sayed. Do gaps like that tend to shrink on Election Day?

I don’t mean to suggest that FiveThirtyEight invented the concept of systematic polling error, but the FiveThirtyEight/Silver ...

Mr. Irrelevant” has the NFL’s highest QBERT rating so far this season. It’s time to stop holding his draft position against ...

Still Counting Episode 7 is ready. This episode is a little bit on the longer side. The original plan was to tell the story of the 2026 campaign through the ubiquitous ads that you’re undoubtedly ...

Despite football’s reputation for being less analytics-friendly than basketball or baseball, there is a lot of data to work with. The NFL is now in its 107th season. There’s now a quarter-century’s ...

Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 Senate race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and which states are likeliest to decide control of the chamber. Below, you’ll find our ...

Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 gubernatorial race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and a chart showing which party will govern more Americans after the midterms.4 ...